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Abstract In a rapidly changing environment, predicting changes in the growth and survival of local populations can inform conservation and management. Plastic responses vary as a result of genetic differentiation within and among species, so accurate rangewide predictions require characterization of genotype-specific reaction norms across the continuum of historic and future climate conditions comprising a species’ range. Natural hybrid zones can give rise to novel recombinant genotypes associated with high phenotypic variability, further increasing the variance of plastic responses within the ranges of the hybridizing species. Experiments that plant replicated genotypes across a range of environments can characterize genotype-specific reaction norms; identify genetic, geographic, and climatic factors affecting variation in climate responses; and make predictions of climate responses across complex genetic and geographic landscapes. The North American hybrid zone ofPopulus trichocarpaandP. balsamiferarepresents a natural system in which reaction norms are likely to vary with underlying genetic variation that has been shaped by climate, geography, and introgression. Here, we leverage a dataset containing 45 clonal genotypes of varying ancestry from this natural hybrid zone, planted across 17 replicated common garden experiments spanning a broad climatic range, including sites warmer than the natural species ranges. Growth and mortality were measured over two years, enabling us to model reaction norms for each genotype across these tested environments. Genomic variation associated with species ancestry and northern/southern regions significantly influenced growth across environments, with genotypic variation in reaction norms reflecting a trade-off between cold tolerance and growth. Using modeled reaction norms for each genotype, we predicted that genotypes with moreP. trichocarpaancestry may gain an advantage under warmer climates. Spatial shifts of the hybrid zone could facilitate the spread of beneficial alleles into novel climates. These results highlight that genotypic variation in responses to temperature will have landscape-level effects. 

Global patterns of population genetic variation through time offer a window into evolutionary processes that maintain diversity. Over time, lineages may expand or contract their distribution, causing turnover in population genetic composition. At individual loci, migration, drift and selection (among other processes) may affect allele frequencies. Museum specimens of widely distributed species offer a unique window into the genetics of understudied populations and changes over time. Here, we sequenced genomes of 130 herbarium specimens and 91 new field collections of Arabidopsis thaliana and combined these with published genomes. We sought a broader view of genomic diversity across the species and to test if population genomic composition is changing through time. We documented extensive and previously uncharacterised diversity in a range of populations in Africa, populations that are under threat from anthropogenic climate change. Through time, we did not find dramatic changes in genomic composition of populations. Instead, we found a pattern of genetic change every 100 years of the same magnitude seen when comparing Eurasian populations that are 185 km apart, potentially due to a combination of drift and changing selection. We found only mixed signals of polygenic adaptation at phenology and physiology QTL. We did find that genes conserved across eudicots show altered levels of directional allele frequency change, potentially due to variable purifying and background selection. Our study highlights how museum specimens can reveal new dimensions of population diversity and show how wild populations are evolving in recent history. 

Summary Phenotypic plasticity allows organisms to optimize traits for their environment. As organisms age, they experience diverse environments that benefit from varying degrees of phenotypic plasticity. Developmental transitions can control these age‐dependent changes in plasticity, and as such, the timing of these transitions can determine when plasticity changes in an organism.Here, we investigate how the transition from juvenile‐to adult‐vegetative development known as vegetative phase change (VPC) contributes to age‐dependent changes in phenotypic plasticity and how the timing of this transition responds to environment using both natural accessions and mutant lines in the model plantArabidopsis thaliana.We found that the adult phase of vegetative development has greater plasticity in leaf morphology than the juvenile phase and confirmed that this difference in plasticity is caused by VPC using mutant lines. Furthermore, we found that the timing of VPC, and therefore the time when increased plasticity is acquired, varies significantly across genotypes and environments.The consistent age‐dependent changes in plasticity caused by VPC suggest that VPC may be adaptive. This genetic and environmental variation in the timing of VPC indicates the potential for population‐level adaptive evolution of VPC. 

An urgent challenge facing biologists is predicting the regional-scale population dynamics of species facing environmental change. Biologists suggest that we must move beyond predictions based on phenomenological models and instead base predictions on underlying processes. For example, population biologists, evolutionary biologists, community ecologists and ecophysiologists all argue that the respective processes they study are essential. Must our models include processes from all of these fields? We argue that answering this critical question is ultimately an empirical exercise requiring a substantial amount of data that have not been integrated for any system to date. To motivate and facilitate the necessary data collection and integration, we first review the potential importance of each mechanism for skilful prediction. We then develop a conceptual framework based on reaction norms, and propose a hierarchical Bayesian statistical framework to integrate processes affecting reaction norms at different scales. The ambitious research programme we advocate is rapidly becoming feasible due to novel collaborations, datasets and analytical tools. 

Biodiversity can affect the properties of groups of organisms, such as ecosystem function and the persistence of colonizing populations. Genomic data offer a newly available window to diversity, complementary to other measures like taxonomic or phenotypic diversity. We tested whether native genetic diversity in field experimental stands of Arabidopsis thaliana affected their aboveground biomass and fecundity in their colonized range. We constructed some stands of genotypes that we a priori predicted would differ in performance or show overyielding. We found no relationship between genetic diversity and stand total biomass. However, increasing stand genetic diversity increased fecundity in high-resource conditions. Polyculture (multiple genotype) stands consistently yielded less biomass than expected based on the yields of component genotypes in monoculture. This under-yielding was strongest in stands with late-flowering and high biomass genotypes, potentially due to interference competition by these genotypes. Using a new implementation of association mapping, we identified genetic loci whose diversity was associated with stand-level yield, revealing a major flowering time locus associated with under-yielding of polycultures. Our field experiment supports community ecology studies that find a range of diversity-function relationships. Nevertheless, our results suggest diversity in colonizing propagule pools can enhance population fitness. Furthermore, interference competition among genotypes differing in flowering time might limit the advantages of polyculture. 

Abstract Host-specific interactions can maintain genetic and phenotypic diversity in parasites that attack multiple host species. Host diversity, in turn, may promote parasite diversity by selection for genetic divergence or plastic responses to host type. The parasitic weed purple witchweed [ Striga hermonthica (Delile) Benth.] causes devastating crop losses in sub-Saharan Africa and is capable of infesting a wide range of grass hosts. Despite some evidence for host adaptation and host-by- Striga genotype interactions, little is known about intraspecific Striga genomic diversity. Here we present a study of transcriptomic diversity in populations of S. hermonthica growing on different hosts (maize [ Zea mays L.] vs. grain sorghum [ Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]). We examined gene expression variation and differences in allelic frequency in expressed genes of aboveground tissues from populations in western Nigeria parasitizing each host. Despite low levels of host-based genome-wide differentiation, we identified a set of parasite transcripts specifically associated with each host. Parasite genes in several different functional categories implicated as important in host–parasite interactions differed in expression level and allele on different hosts, including genes involved in nutrient transport, defense and pathogenesis, and plant hormone response. Overall, we provide a set of candidate transcripts that demonstrate host-specific interactions in vegetative tissues of the emerged parasite S. hermonthica . Our study shows how signals of host-specific processes can be detected aboveground, expanding the focus of host–parasite interactions beyond the haustorial connection.